Last night MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell's guest, Allen Lichtman, a professor at the American University told Lawrence that he could can forget about the polls because President Obama is winning on nine of the 13 keys necessary to win the presidential election. The professor said that a presidential candidate has to win six or more of 13 keys and President Obama currently has won nine of them. Professor Lichtman's formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan 1984 re-election. He accurately predicted Bill Clinton's win over President George H.W. Bush. In 2005 the professor predicted that the democrats could pick a name out of a phone book and win the 2008 presidential election.
The top keys working for the president is scandal-free administration, capturing Osama bin Laden, and incumbency. The president has to worry about his lack of charisma and leadership on key issues including healthcare.
Below are the key and those marked with an X is where Obama loses...U= undecided
X..1...Party mandate...The GOP won the house in the mid terms
.....2...Contest...................... ...... The GOP does not have a serious candidate
.....3...Incumbency.. .....................self explanatory
.....4...Third Party.........................None
U...5.. Short term economy......... If we are in a recession.
X...6...Long-term economy... ...... Practically no growth.
......7...Policy Change.................. No major changes.
----8.. Social unrest............. ........ No sustained social unrest
----9...Scandal...............................None
---10.. Foreign/ military failure.....None
---11. Foreign military success.....Osama bin Laden
X.12.Incumbent charisma...............cannot connect,not a national hero
....13.Challenger charisma..............none
I wouldn't bet the house but it's not a crazy formula but I guess we will be seeing studies like this one for the next fifteen months..:-)
4 comments:
This is interesting.
I understand Sarah Palin will be giving her final answer on running this weekend.
Now, using the Michelle Bachmann Method for Making Political Decisions, I would suggest that Sarah just say no thanks. I think that earthquake in Alaska this morning was speaking to her loud and clear...
The Sarah Palin event this Labor Day will be an interesting one.
1. She can enter the race and cause quite a stir.
2. She can say she will not into the race and it will be a expected response but newsworthy.
3. She can drop out of the race and endorse someone, if it's Rick Perry, goodbye Michelle Bachmann,who has one foot out the door already.
4. She can leave the question open and become totally irreverent
That's funny but I just heard a news commentator say that Hawaii and Alaska were the only states they did not have a weather disaster this year... That now leaves out Alaska.
I have to make a comment. There is one factor he forgot......Barack Obama is a black man.
BigJ
He was a black man in 2008
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